Logo Alt 3
BTC halving 2024

Parkour Update November 2023

Since the dizzying highs at the end of 2021, the cryptocurrency market has navigated a bear market of unprecedented volatility. In this period, we’ve witnessed the downfall of once-celebrated entities such as Terra, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX amid a more extensive economic downturn and rising global tensions. These events have reshaped the industry, pruning excesses and laying a foundation for a more robust future.

However, the resilience of the crypto market has shone brightly against the shadow of macroeconomic headwinds. Even as the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish demeanor, the final months of 2023 have ushered in a discernible shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin, our bellwether asset, has clawed its way back from the lows, drawing in a wave of ‘risk-on’ investors and rekindling the spirit of opportunity within the cryptosphere.

This period of transformation has been marked by an evolving maturity within the crypto industry. The fallout of the FTX debacle, alongside other sectoral shifts, has catalyzed a renewed emphasis on regulatory compliance, governance, and transparency. This, coupled with growing institutional acceptance and a relentless drive for innovation, signals a maturing market poised for sustainable growth.

Looking ahead, the impending resolution of the FTX bankruptcy case marks a critical milestone for the cryptocurrency market. This event, alongside pivotal developments across the sector, is poised to shape the trajectory of our industry.

FTX Status

As the FTX bankruptcy proceedings continue, the legal situation of its founder and former CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, has reached a critical juncture. Bankman-Fried was found guilty of all seven counts of fraud with a sentencing date set for March 28, 2024, and the prospect of serving up to 115 years in prison. The severity of the case underscores a rigorous legal response to corporate misconduct within the cryptocurrency sector.

Amidst the bankruptcy turmoil, interesting developments have surfaced regarding the future of FTX. Notably, Tom Farley, a seasoned financial executive and former president of the New York Stock Exchange, has expressed interest in acquiring the exchange. A resolution on this matter is expected by mid-December. The idea of a reborn FTX is fraught with challenges due to the brand’s checkered past. Nevertheless, it would arguably become one of the most closely regulated crypto exchanges to date.

FTX Funds Recovery

The notion of FTX’s resurgence carries implications for the recovery of funds. Prospective buyers, in their bids for FTX, would need to also provide plans for creditor claims in effort to make claims against FTX whole.

FTX has cited progress in formulating a final settlement plan, set to be filed by December 16. The proposed Customer Shortfall Settlement, if sanctioned by the court, could instigate the process of confirming the amended plan in the subsequent year. Current projections are optimistic, with some estimates anticipating the recovery of over 90% of customer funds. However, these projections remain fluid and contingent on the court’s decisions. The forthcoming filing is expected to shed further light on the nuances of the settlement, marking a crucial step towards clarifying the potential recovery for our investors. We continue to monitor the situation closely and are optimistic about the aforementioned settlement plan to be released mid-December.

Macroeconomy: Light at the End of the Tunnel

Over the past year, the major macroeconomic catalyst shaping market returns has been the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Initially, the Fed’s stance on inflation, which was considered transitory, resulted in a prolonged period of low-interest rates post the subprime mortgage crisis. However, the persistence of high inflation rates into late 2021 compelled a shift towards a rate hike cycle aimed at taming inflation and reinstating price stability.

Such aggressive monetary policy tightening traditionally spells a challenging period for risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. As borrowing costs rise, both businesses and consumers face financial constraints, and bond markets typically retreat as bond prices inversely respond to the rise in interest rates.

Yet, recent comments by the Fed indicate that the rate hike campaign may be drawing to a close. This pivot is partly informed by the daunting reality of the national debt: within the next three years, half of the government’s debt is set to mature. With the interest expense on this debt already a significant portion of the federal budget, refinancing at the current elevated rates could risk fiscal insolvency.

Given these conditions, the Federal Reserve will likely lean towards reducing interest rates in the near future.  Such economic signals reinforce our outlook that we are transitioning into a climate more favorable to risk assets and stores of value, such as Bitcoin and select digital assets.

The Four-Year Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s journey since its inception has been characterized by four-year halving cycles, a rhythm that has emerged as a core pattern in its market behavior. The stages of these cycles—beginning with rapid appreciation, leading to peaks and corrections, and followed by the establishment of new support levels—culminate in phases of sustained growth. Historical data shows that these cycles are often aligned with a broader economic narrative, and current patterns suggest the market is transitioning towards a stage of steady growth.

The halving events, a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s monetary policy, have historically signaled the start of bullish phases. These events, which occur roughly every four years or after every 210,000 blocks mined, halve the reward given to miners and effectively slow the introduction of new Bitcoin into the market. The chart representing these cycles shows the price trajectory before and after halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, underscoring the scarcity-induced appreciation in value.

The next halving event, slated for April 2024, will further reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This programmed scarcity is anticipated to boost Bitcoin’s value as it ensures the disinflationary nature of the asset’s supply. However, while the market keenly anticipates this event, the precise timing of the resulting rally remains uncertain amidst global economic tensions and complexities.

Accompanying these Bitcoin-centric developments is the Federal Reserve’s recent signaling towards a potential cessation of rate hikes. This macroeconomic shift may provide a conducive backdrop for Bitcoin’s anticipated rally post-halving, creating a synergy between cyclical scarcity and easing monetary policy.

Bitcoin Price Chart

A logarithmic regression analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price, serves as another analytical tool, illustrating Bitcoin’s long-term valuation trends and investor sentiment. As shown in the accompanying chart, the colored bands represent various phases of market sentiment, guiding investors on opportune times for accumulating Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Together, these analytical frameworks — the four-year halving cycles and the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart — alongside the Federal Reserve’s rate plans, paint a comprehensive picture of the forces at play. As the market emerges from its correction phase, these indicators and macroeconomic factors collectively suggest a favorable set-up for Bitcoin and other digital assets, promising a potentially robust phase of growth ahead.


The landscape of cryptocurrency investment is poised for a transformation with the projected approval of a U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF. Industry analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence put the likelihood of such an event at 90% by January 2024. The anticipation has already spurred market activity, with Bitcoin’s price rallying to heights not witnessed in over a year.

Globally, Bitcoin ETFs have been part of the investment fabric in Canada and Europe, yet the U.S. market — a key player in global finance — has been tethered to futures and other derivatives. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) stands as a testament to the potential scale, commanding over $21 billion in assets under management. The market is now on the cusp of embracing ETFs that mirror Bitcoin’s market price, offering more direct and liquid investment opportunities.

Institutional interest is on the rise, with firms like Grayscale and BlackRock leading the charge for a Bitcoin ETF. Approval from regulatory bodies could unlock significant institutional capital, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s price. According to Galaxy Digital, a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could attract billions in the coming years, marking a substantial shift in capital flow towards cryptocurrency.

The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF heralds a broader market access point, aligning with the concept of mutual funds and indices that create a “passive bid” in the traditional stock market. This could usher in a new wave of asset managers who include Bitcoin in mutual funds, pension and retirement plans, or index funds, much like stocks. Such a move not only legitimizes Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios, but also could have a stabilizing effect on Bitcoin’s price, similar to the passive investment strategies in the equity markets.

Altcoin Research + Portfolio Narratives
As the bear market persisted, our team has been diligently researching and identifying altcoins with promising potential for the next cycle. Our focus has been on narratives where development is likely to succeed and foster widespread adoption, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence and interoperability.

Akash Network (AKT):

Akash Network is emerging as a key enabler in AI, especially with AKT 2.0 enhancing its decentralized cloud for AI processes. Its infrastructure is geared for parallel and distributed AI tasks, such as hyperparameter tuning and large-scale model training, without the need for centralized, high-bandwidth communication. For production, AKT’s network facilitates the deployment of AI models for various applications, even with modest GPU resources. With a robust open-source community and a peer-to-peer model, Akash Network is well-positioned for the computational demands of AI, underpinning its potential in the evolving tech landscape​​.


PAAL is at the forefront of integrating AI with blockchain technology. Built upon robust AI frameworks like NLP and machine learning, it offers customizable AI models that cater to individual user needs. The platform features an AI-driven chatbot platform for personalized interactions and extends to social media with AI bots for platforms like Telegram and Twitter, providing around-the-clock support in the crypto space. The PAAL ecosystem is expanding with tools like an AI search engine, neural search, image generation, and data connections. These innovations aim to push the boundaries of AI and blockchain, creating a harmonious digital experience for users​​.

Cosmos (ATOM):

The Cosmos ecosystem has been particularly active, with the migration of dYdX, a decentralized exchange, from Ethereum to Cosmos, heralding a new era of activity and total value locked within its network. This migration was enabled by the ecosystem’s interoperable nature and the Cosmos SDK. Additionally, the integration of Noble USDC into the Cosmos ecosystem is set to bring a significant influx of capital, with predictions of $200 million entering its space. ATOM’s current trading price reflects the ecosystem’s growth and the investor confidence in its future potential​​.

The intersection of artificial intelligence with blockchain technology heralds a transformative era for cryptocurrencies. Projects like Akash Network, PAAL, and Cosmos showcase the potential for AI to exponentially enhance crypto utilities and adoption. This amalgamation is set to unlock innovative opportunities and efficiencies, underscoring AI’s critical role in shaping the future trajectory of the crypto market. As AI weaves into the fabric of blockchain, it promises outsized impacts and vast potentials for the next frontier in digital assets.

Conclusion: Strategic Reallocation and Outlook

As we reflect on 2023, the landscape of cryptocurrency investment has been one of cautious navigation and patience. Over the past year, Parkour Venture Fund has navigated the ebbs and flows of the cryptocurrency market with cautious optimism. The decision to exit the market in May 2022 was made during a time of heightened volatility, with Bitcoin at approximately $38,000 and Ethereum at around $2,800. This move was followed by a period of cautious observation as the market bottomed out through the end of 2022 and began its recovery in Q1 of 2023.

During the early part of 2023, as the market began to recover, Parkour chose not to immediately re-enter. This cautious approach was guided by the well-known market wisdom about the risks of trying to time the market perfectly. Attempting to predict the lowest point of the market can be very risky. Therefore, Parkour started reallocating assets in Q2, focusing on a more strategic plan that matched the fund’s long-term goals and valuation assessments, rather than reacting to short-term changes in volatile markets.

As Q2 began, Parkour initiated a strategic reallocation into assets, with a dual-focused approach. On one hand, the fund invested in new, high-development projects that have shown promising progress throughout the bear market. These projects, while expected to initially lag behind Bitcoin’s recovery, are positioned for potentially higher returns in the next cycle. On the other hand, Parkour also made measured allocations into Bitcoin and Ethereum, acknowledging their status as foundational assets in crypto. This balanced strategy reflects the belief that Bitcoin, as a leading indicator, will pave the way for a broader market recovery, while these high-development projects offer the potential for significant alpha.

Parkour’s strategy remains agile and responsive, with a complete allocation of our working capital and a well-defined plan to deploy the remaining capital from the FTX claim once it is returned pending the expected release of the settlement plan come mid-December. The anticipated resolution of the FTX claim is not merely a closing chapter on a period of uncertainty, but also a catalyst for the next bullish phase in the crypto market. Parkour is poised to take advantage of this momentum, with a clear vision for the coming cycle. Our forward-looking approach will enable us to embrace the opportunities that this next phase will present.

Despite the initial setbacks this year, Parkour has managed to reallocate our liquid portion at more favorable market levels than where we exited the previous cycle, underscoring our commitment to capitalizing on long-term trends and maximizing returns. Our conviction in the potential of the digital asset space remains unshaken, and we approach the future with an optimistic outlook, ready to harness the growth and capital appreciation that lies ahead.

Thank you for your continued trust and partnership as we navigate these exciting times. Together, we look forward to a future rich with opportunity and growth.

The Parkour Team

Share this post